Analysis of China's lighting industry exports in the first three quarters of 2019

In the first three quarters of 2019, the total export value of China's lighting industry was about 32.2 billion U.S. dollars, which increased slightly by 2.55% year-on-year, which was narrower than the growth rate in the first half of the year.

Analysis of China's lighting industry exports in the first three quarters of 2019

In the first three quarters of 2019, China exported a total of about 7.191 billion light source products, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year; of which 1.505 billion were incandescent lamps, 324 million were halogen tungsten lamps; and 681 were compact fluorescent lamps. 100 million, 222 million straight tube / ring-shaped fluorescent lamps; 450 million three HID lamps; 4.414 million LED light sources (3.979 billion bulbs, 497 million lamps) , Accounting for 61.4%, the proportion increased a lot compared to the same period last year (53.2% in the same period last year); meanwhile, traditional light sources still accounted for 38.6%, and the replacement market still has certain potential.

With the replacement of related LED lighting products and the global elimination of energy-intensive products, various types of traditional lighting products include halogen tungsten lamps of thermal radiation light sources, compact fluorescent lamps and straight tube / ring fluorescent lamps of high-intensity lamps, and high-intensity gases. Almost all double-digit declines, including high-pressure mercury lamps, high-pressure sodium lamps, and metal halide lamps, such as discharge lamps.

It is worth noting that the total number of incandescent lamp exports in the first three quarters still reached 1.505 billion, which was basically the same as the same period last year, and the amount was not much reduced. Some major incandescent lamp manufacturers such as Foshan Lighting, Anhui Shilin, Shandong Huatai According to the situation reflected by Chengdu Tianxing, the profit margin of incandescent lamps has also maintained a better level (at least than LED light sources). According to the data in recent years, the biggest impact after LED gradually penetrates into general lighting is the gas discharge light source, which is more energy-efficient than heat radiation light source. Related products, fluorescent lamps and HID have experienced a significant decline in recent years. For consumer terminals, in addition to energy saving, comfort is also an important indicator. Looking at it this way, the "golden tail" of incandescent lamps seems to have a long period.

Another noteworthy is tungsten halogen lamps. Previously, tungsten halogen lamps were favored by the European and American markets with low color temperature and high efficiency because of their excellent light color quality and high efficiency compared to incandescent lamps. The data is relatively strong compared to other traditional light sources. Successive bans on halogen lamps for general lighting have been introduced, making them truly enter the accelerated downward interval. It can be seen from the above figure that, as of September 1, 2018, the EU eliminated some non-reflective halogen lamps for general lighting. Therefore, since August 2018, the number and amount of tungsten halogen lamp exports have fallen precipitously, and the number of single months has basically remained at about 40% of the previous normal month. In the first three quarters of 2019, the total number of exports was 324 million, a 55.52% year-on-year drop; the export value was 106 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 51.46%, showing a trend of cuts. The export unit price has increased because the halogen-tungsten lamp products not included in the embargo are mainly reflective and special lighting products with higher unit prices. In this situation, related LED replacement products such as LED filament lamps or multi-faceted LED bulbs will usher in a round of replacement opportunities.

The main lighting products include "chandelier and electrical lighting on the ceiling or wall" with HS code 94051000, that is, fixed lamps; "electrical table lamp, bedside lamp or floor lamp" with HS code 94052000. Mobile lamps; and "unlisted electric lamps and lighting devices" with HS code 94054090, that is, outdoor lamps and some LED lamps.

The export of these types of lighting products mainly reflects the fundamentals of the national economic needs of various countries, and is also the main force that drives the entire export of lighting products. The growth curve also reflects that the global economy is still in a low state and is in a difficult recovery period. The proportion of LED lamps has also increased, such as indoor down / spot lights, panel lights, high ceiling lights, line lights, outdoor flood / flood lights, lawn lights / patio lights, street lights / tunnel lights and other integrated lights Products have gradually become the main force.

Generally speaking, with the rapid development of technology at each end of the industrial chain in recent years, LED lighting products have further improved cost performance, and have gradually spread to all areas of general lighting, which has also driven the growth of related product exports, but the market demand is relatively weak and the growth base Increasing year by year, the long life of LED products affects the market increase and other objective reasons, LED lighting products growth rate is narrowing is also the general trend. LED's share of the entire export has increased year by year, reflecting its gradual replacement of traditional lighting products.

The export value of LED lighting products in the first half of 2019 was approximately 21.114 billion US dollars, a slight increase of 1.95% year-on-year, accounting for about two-thirds of the total export value of lighting products. (Note: The data of LED lighting products mainly come from multiple customs HS codes, including 85395000 “light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs (tubes)” added in the light source category in 2017, that is, LED bulbs and tubes; 94051000 "chandelier and electrical lighting device on ceiling or wall", that is, fixed lamps, 94052000 "electric table lamps, bedside lamps or floor lamps", namely portable lamps, 94053000 "complete sets of lamps for Christmas trees" and 94054090 "Unlisted electric lamps and lighting devices," which includes outdoor lamps and some LED lamps.)

Among them, the number of LED light source exports in the first three quarters of 2019 was 4.414 billion, an increase of 14.67% year-on-year, a rebound from the situation in the previous two quarters, and the export value was US $ 4.04 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.57%. . Among them, the number of LED bulbs was 3.917 billion, an increase of 17.19% year-on-year, and the export value was 2.991 billion US dollars, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year; the number of LED lamps was 497 million, a decrease of 1.77% year-on-year , The export value was 1.048 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 10.87%. In the first three quarters of 2019, the export value of LED lamps was US $ 17.074 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.53%.

The average export price of LED light source is less than US $ 1, only US $ 0.92, a year-on-year decrease of 17.12%, a decrease of US $ 0.19, and the average price of the first half of the year also decreased by US $ 0.04. Among them, the unit price of LED lamp exports is about 2.11 US dollars, the unit price of bulb exports is only about 0.76 US dollars. Each unit price continues to refresh the historical low.

From the data of 21 consecutive months of LED replacement light source exports, since the second half of 2018, the number of monthly exports of LED replacement light sources has increased year-on-year, but the export value has almost a negative growth year-on-year, even in 2019. Exports have also fallen year-on-year in several months. The situation of export destination markets and exporting companies reflects the same trend. There are various indications that although the global replacement light source market still has some potential, it is quite close to its replacement peak.

Since the beginning of 2018, the unit price of almost every month's products has been lower than the same period last year, which also reflects the brutal and continuous price competition in the light source export market.

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